| 11.35
Building the optimal forward curve Overcoming the perennial problem of an illiquid market - achieving price transparency Evaluating the validity of assumptions Developing a curve that is informative, efficient and indicative of the market Building consistent forward curves using optimal inputs Comparing and contrasting curves for different pools PJM California Nordpool Minimising substantial deviations between forward prices and expected spot prices Incorporating the risk premium in the power market into the curve establishing a reasonable risk premium level Professor Craig Pirrong, OLIN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY |
| 12.15
Modelling power prices: obtaining an effective power price
process Evaluating methodologies for modelling power prices jump models and jump diffusion geometric Brownian motion mean reversion Black-Scholes Black Wilcox model Assessing the relevance of random walk models Using an indirect approach using load and weather as inputs into a model Exploring the non-linear relationship between load and price Estimating volatility accurately Blake Johnson Assistant Professor, STANFORD UNIVERSITY |
| 3.05
Optimising information to accurately price and trade electricity Identifying and selecting information sources Comparing internal and external data sources evaluating reliability Maintaining the integrity of data Operational considerations: ensuring effective database management Accessing and selecting appropriate data ensuring consistency when sourcing data Gary Morsches, President SOUTHERN COMPANY ENERGY MARKETING LP |
| 4.15
Overcoming the difficulties of accurately estimating volatility
Evaluating the key volatility estimation techniques Assessing the applicability of ARCH & GARCH for modelling future volatility Calibrating implied volatility Calculating historical volatility determining the term structure of volatility seasonally-adjusted term structure of volatility Applying mean reversion to volatility Incorporating the smile and skew into volatility calculations Spyros Maragos, Director of Commercial & Quantitative Analysis, DYNEGY INC. |
| 4.55 Effectively
estimating and applying correlation Overcoming the challenges of determining implied correlation Analysing how correlations move together over time Calculating cross-commodity correlation Using correlation as a hedging tool obtaining the appropriate hedge ratio Identifying options whose value is dependent upon correlation Sanjeev Khanna Director, Quantitative Risk Management PG&E ENERGY TRADING |
![]() |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Day
One - Stream One, 9 May 2000
|
|||||||||||||||||||
Latest
developments in Credit Risk Management*(Move the mouse over the description marked with a star for further details) |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||